Trend following

Supertrend Flip

Supertrend draws a line a set number of ATRs from the price: below it in an uptrend, above it in a downtrend. It flips only when a close crosses the line, so it ignores ordinary noise. Made popular by French trader Olivier Seban, it is one of the most used indicators among Indian traders.

Yearly return, after costs+12.2%Nifty 500 +11.5% over the same years

Worst fall−43.4%Win rate39%Matches now2

How it works

The signal every rule true at the close

Supertrend (10-day ATR, multiplier 3) flips from down to up today
Close is above the 200-day moving average

The exit whichever comes first

Supertrend flips back down (a close below its line)

Typical holdingWeeks to months; it rides the trend

An example from the backtestAnand Rathi Wealth ANANDRATHIThe rules were met at the close before 6 Apr 2026. The trade opened that morning and closed on 30 Sep 2026, 122 trading days later, +31.4% after costs. Exit: supertrend flipped down.

Stocks meeting the rules 2

At the close of 1 Oct 2026, among NSE's 500 most-traded stocks. A screen, not a recommendation: in the backtest, a trade opened at the next day's open.

Backtest

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: a 10-stock portfolio following these rules on NSE's 500 most-traded stocks at each date, after 0.2% costs on each side, against the Nifty 500 index.

Yearly return+12.2%Index +11.5%

Compound growth a year (CAGR).

Total return+243%Index +224%

Gain or loss over the whole test.

Worst fall−43.4%Index −38.3%

Largest drop from a high (max drawdown).

Win rate38.5%

Share of trades that closed with a gain.

Profit factor1.54

Rupees gained for every rupee lost.

Average trade+3.22%

Average result per trade, after costs.

Average gain · loss+23.9% · −9.8%

A typical winning and losing trade.

Days held44

Average trading days per trade.

Trades574

About 53 a year.

Sharpe ratio0.67

Return for each unit of ups and downs.

Time invested95%

Average share of the money in trades.

Best · worst trade+238% · −39%

The extremes, after costs.

₹1 lakh following the rules

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: ₹3.43 L against ₹3.24 L in the Nifty 500.

Supertrend FlipNifty 500

Falls from the high

Worst in this period −43.4%

Each calendar year

Return in the year, after costs.

Supertrend FlipNifty 500

How the 574 trades ended

Each trade's return after costs, grouped.

GainLoss

How sturdy is it?

The same rules, tested again with one thing changed. A result worth trusting holds up across these; a big swing means the headline figure depends on luck or on the exact setup.

Beat the Nifty 500 in 3 of 5 versions and in 1 of 2 halves of the test.

Version	Yearly return	Worst fall	Win rate	Profit factor	Trades
As published10 stocks at a time, 0.2% costs on each side	+12.2%	−43.4%	38.5%	1.54	574
With the market filterNew trades only while the Nifty 500 is above its 200-day average	+18.0%	−42.1%	39.5%	1.93	488
Costs doubled0.4% on each side, as slippage in thinner stocks can be	+10.0%	−45.8%	37.3%	1.45	574
5 stocks at a timeA bigger share of the money in each trade	+12.3%	−41.0%	36.8%	1.56	296
20 stocks at a timeA smaller share in each trade	+10.3%	−35.9%	37.9%	1.46	1,142

First half · 1 Jan 2016 to 21 May 2021

Strategy+17.3%/yr

Nifty 500+12.8%/yr

Ahead of the index by 4.5 points a year.

Second half · 21 May 2021 to 1 Oct 2026

Strategy+7.2%/yr

Nifty 500+10.3%/yr

Behind the index by 3.1 points a year.

Recent trades in the backtest

The last 12 trades the rules closed, with 9 still open.

Stock	Opened	Closed	Days	Return	Why it closed
Enviro Infra EngineersEIEL	11 Sep 2026	1 Oct 2026	13	−10.0%	Supertrend flipped down
Anand Rathi WealthANANDRATHI	6 Apr 2026	30 Sep 2026	122	+31.4%	Supertrend flipped down
Nuvama Wealth ManagementNUVAMA	3 Sep 2026	29 Sep 2026	17	−12.9%	Supertrend flipped down
Tata Investment CorporationTATAINVEST	16 Sep 2026	28 Sep 2026	8	−8.6%	Supertrend flipped down
Karur Vysya BankKARURVYSYA	13 Jul 2026	16 Sep 2026	46	+6.2%	Supertrend flipped down
Jindal Drilling And IndustriesJINDRILL	13 May 2026	16 Sep 2026	87	+1.3%	Supertrend flipped down
IFCIIFCI	4 Aug 2026	11 Sep 2026	28	+8.4%	Supertrend flipped down
Tech MahindraTECHM	20 Jul 2026	10 Sep 2026	38	−4.5%	Supertrend flipped down
R R KabelRRKABEL	28 Jul 2026	4 Sep 2026	28	−7.6%	Supertrend flipped down
State Bank of IndiaSBIN	15 Jun 2026	3 Sep 2026	57	−0.9%	Supertrend flipped down
Privi Speciality ChemicalsPRIVISCL	15 Jun 2026	2 Sep 2026	56	−5.4%	Supertrend flipped down
Aditya InfotechCPPLUS	13 Aug 2026	18 Aug 2026	3	−20.7%	Supertrend flipped down

How the tests work

Universe. The 500 most-traded NSE stocks at each date, by six-month average traded value, re-ranked every month: 1,353 different stocks over the years, 131 of which no longer trade. Testing all of them, not only today's survivors, keeps the results honest.
Period. 1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026, after a year of history for the long averages, on NSE's own end-of-day files: prices, delivery and futures open interest.
Portfolio. 10 slots, each a tenth of the portfolio's value when a trade opens. A signal at a day's close opens at the next day's open; an exit rule met at a close closes the trade at the next open. When there are more signals than free slots, the strategy's own ranking decides.
Costs. 0.2% on each side of every trade (STT, stamp duty, exchange charges and slippage). Tax and DP charges are not included.
Market filter. Every strategy is also tested opening new trades only while the Nifty 500 closes above its 200-day average. At the last close it was below it.
Robustness. Each strategy is run again with costs doubled, with 5 and with 20 stocks at a time, and judged separately in each half of the test. A result that only holds in one setup is luck, not an edge.
Corporate actions. Splits, bonus issues and demergers are applied from NSE's corporate-actions list, and symbol changes are joined up, so none of them shows up as a gain or a loss.
What is left out. Dividends (as in the Nifty 500 price index it is measured against), taxes, and the chance that a large order moves a thinly traded price.

Swing Lab is a screen and a history lesson, not advice. RupeeVerse is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. A stock meeting a strategy's rules is not a recommendation to trade it, and past results do not predict future ones. Do your own research.