Trend following

EMA 20/50 Trend

From Classic dual moving averageRead about it

The oldest trend-following idea: when the faster 20-day average crosses above the slower 50-day, a new uptrend may be starting. Only crosses above the 200-day average count, so the long-term trend agrees.

Yearly return, after costs+16.0%Nifty 500 +11.5% over the same years

Worst fall−41.1%Win rate29%Matches now0

How it works

The signal every rule true at the close

20-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA today
Close is above the 200-day moving average

The exit whichever comes first

20-day EMA crosses back below the 50-day EMA
Or closes 2.5 ATR below the price the trade opened at

Typical holdingWeeks to months; it rides the trend

An example from the backtestThe Federal Bank FEDERALBNKThe rules were met at the close before 13 Apr 2026. The trade opened that morning and closed on 24 Sep 2026, 113 trading days later, +14.7% after costs. Exit: 20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day.

Stocks meeting the rules 0

At the close of 1 Oct 2026, among NSE's 500 most-traded stocks. A screen, not a recommendation: in the backtest, a trade opened at the next day's open.

No stock among the 500 most-traded met every rule at the last close. Strategies like this wait for their setup; the list fills again when one appears.

Backtest

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: a 10-stock portfolio following these rules on NSE's 500 most-traded stocks at each date, after 0.2% costs on each side, against the Nifty 500 index.

Yearly return+16.0%Index +11.5%

Compound growth a year (CAGR).

Total return+392%Index +224%

Gain or loss over the whole test.

Worst fall−41.1%Index −38.3%

Largest drop from a high (max drawdown).

Win rate29%

Share of trades that closed with a gain.

Profit factor2.08

Rupees gained for every rupee lost.

Average trade+5.41%

Average result per trade, after costs.

Average gain · loss+36.0% · −7.1%

A typical winning and losing trade.

Days held49.6

Average trading days per trade.

Trades504

About 47 a year.

Sharpe ratio0.85

Return for each unit of ups and downs.

Time invested97%

Average share of the money in trades.

Best · worst trade+437% · −23%

The extremes, after costs.

₹1 lakh following the rules

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: ₹4.92 L against ₹3.24 L in the Nifty 500.

EMA 20/50 TrendNifty 500

Falls from the high

Worst in this period −41.1%

Each calendar year

Return in the year, after costs.

EMA 20/50 TrendNifty 500

How the 504 trades ended

Each trade's return after costs, grouped.

GainLoss

How sturdy is it?

The same rules, tested again with one thing changed. A result worth trusting holds up across these; a big swing means the headline figure depends on luck or on the exact setup.

Beat the Nifty 500 in 5 of 5 versions and in 1 of 2 halves of the test.

Version	Yearly return	Worst fall	Win rate	Profit factor	Trades
As published10 stocks at a time, 0.2% costs on each side	+16.0%	−41.1%	29%	2.08	504
With the market filterNew trades only while the Nifty 500 is above its 200-day average	+12.6%	−46.8%	27.4%	2.03	412
Costs doubled0.4% on each side, as slippage in thinner stocks can be	+14.1%	−43.1%	28.6%	1.97	504
5 stocks at a timeA bigger share of the money in each trade	+15.7%	−42.5%	28.1%	2.04	260
20 stocks at a timeA smaller share in each trade	+18.4%	−33.8%	28.8%	2.09	942

First half · 1 Jan 2016 to 21 May 2021

Strategy+28.8%/yr

Nifty 500+12.8%/yr

Ahead of the index by 16.0 points a year.

Second half · 21 May 2021 to 1 Oct 2026

Strategy+4.4%/yr

Nifty 500+10.3%/yr

Behind the index by 5.9 points a year.

Recent trades in the backtest

The last 12 trades the rules closed, with 9 still open.

Stock	Opened	Closed	Days	Return	Why it closed
Jindal Drilling And IndustriesJINDRILL	29 Sep 2026	30 Sep 2026	1	−3.8%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
Tata Investment CorporationTATAINVEST	21 Sep 2026	30 Sep 2026	7	−10.5%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
Bank of MaharashtraMAHABANK	28 Aug 2026	30 Sep 2026	22	−6.1%	2.5 ATR below the opening price
Poonawalla FincorpPOONAWALLA	24 Sep 2026	29 Sep 2026	3	−5.5%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
Firstsource SolutionsFSL	17 Sep 2026	28 Sep 2026	7	−6.1%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
AU Small Finance BankAUBANK	15 Jun 2026	25 Sep 2026	72	−3.7%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMCABSLAMC	18 Sep 2026	24 Sep 2026	4	−6.2%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
The Federal BankFEDERALBNK	13 Apr 2026	24 Sep 2026	113	+14.8%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
IndusInd BankINDUSINDBK	4 May 2026	18 Sep 2026	96	+3.8%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMSTITAGARH	7 Sep 2026	16 Sep 2026	6	−6.2%	2.5 ATR below the opening price
Prestige Estates ProjectsPRESTIGE	17 Jun 2026	15 Sep 2026	62	−1.2%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day
Sun Pharmaceutical IndustriesSUNPHARMA	5 May 2026	15 Sep 2026	92	+1.0%	20-day EMA crossed below the 50-day

How the tests work

Universe. The 500 most-traded NSE stocks at each date, by six-month average traded value, re-ranked every month: 1,353 different stocks over the years, 131 of which no longer trade. Testing all of them, not only today's survivors, keeps the results honest.
Period. 1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026, after a year of history for the long averages, on NSE's own end-of-day files: prices, delivery and futures open interest.
Portfolio. 10 slots, each a tenth of the portfolio's value when a trade opens. A signal at a day's close opens at the next day's open; an exit rule met at a close closes the trade at the next open. When there are more signals than free slots, the strategy's own ranking decides.
Costs. 0.2% on each side of every trade (STT, stamp duty, exchange charges and slippage). Tax and DP charges are not included.
Market filter. Every strategy is also tested opening new trades only while the Nifty 500 closes above its 200-day average. At the last close it was below it.
Robustness. Each strategy is run again with costs doubled, with 5 and with 20 stocks at a time, and judged separately in each half of the test. A result that only holds in one setup is luck, not an edge.
Corporate actions. Splits, bonus issues and demergers are applied from NSE's corporate-actions list, and symbol changes are joined up, so none of them shows up as a gain or a loss.
What is left out. Dividends (as in the Nifty 500 price index it is measured against), taxes, and the chance that a large order moves a thinly traded price.

Swing Lab is a screen and a history lesson, not advice. RupeeVerse is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. A stock meeting a strategy's rules is not a recommendation to trade it, and past results do not predict future ones. Do your own research.