Volume signature

Pocket Pivot

From Gil Morales & Chris KacherRead about it

Gil Morales and Chris Kacher, who managed money for William O'Neil, looked for big funds' footprints inside a base: an up day on more volume than any down day of the past ten sessions, close to the 10-day average rather than stretched far above it.

Yearly return, after costs+15.0%Nifty 500 +11.5% over the same years

Worst fall−62.4%Win rate30%Matches now16

How it works

The signal every rule true at the close

An up day whose volume beats every down day's volume in the past 10 sessions
Close no more than 5% above the 10-day EMA (not stretched)
Close above the 50-day average, and the 50-day above the 200-day

The exit whichever comes first

Closes below the 50-day moving average
Or closes 7% below the price the trade opened at

Typical holdingWeeks to months

An example from the backtestAther Energy ATHERENERGThe rules were met at the close before 1 Jun 2026. The trade opened that morning and closed on 29 Sep 2026, 84 trading days later, +49.9% after costs. Exit: closed below the 50-day average.

Stocks meeting the rules 16

At the close of 1 Oct 2026, among NSE's 500 most-traded stocks. A screen, not a recommendation: in the backtest, a trade opened at the next day's open.

Backtest

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: a 10-stock portfolio following these rules on NSE's 500 most-traded stocks at each date, after 0.2% costs on each side, against the Nifty 500 index.

Yearly return+15.0%Index +11.5%

Compound growth a year (CAGR).

Total return+350%Index +224%

Gain or loss over the whole test.

Worst fall−62.4%Index −38.3%

Largest drop from a high (max drawdown).

Win rate29.8%

Share of trades that closed with a gain.

Profit factor1.52

Rupees gained for every rupee lost.

Average trade+2.02%

Average result per trade, after costs.

Average gain · loss+19.9% · −5.6%

A typical winning and losing trade.

Days held22.2

Average trading days per trade.

Trades1,143

About 106 a year.

Sharpe ratio0.75

Return for each unit of ups and downs.

Time invested98%

Average share of the money in trades.

Best · worst trade+218% · −24%

The extremes, after costs.

₹1 lakh following the rules

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: ₹4.50 L against ₹3.24 L in the Nifty 500.

Pocket PivotNifty 500

Falls from the high

Worst in this period −62.4%

Each calendar year

Return in the year, after costs.

Pocket PivotNifty 500

How the 1,143 trades ended

Each trade's return after costs, grouped.

GainLoss

How sturdy is it?

The same rules, tested again with one thing changed. A result worth trusting holds up across these; a big swing means the headline figure depends on luck or on the exact setup.

Beat the Nifty 500 in 4 of 5 versions and in 2 of 2 halves of the test.

Version	Yearly return	Worst fall	Win rate	Profit factor	Trades
As published10 stocks at a time, 0.2% costs on each side	+15.0%	−62.4%	29.8%	1.52	1,143
With the market filterNew trades only while the Nifty 500 is above its 200-day average	+14.5%	−49.7%	28.7%	1.53	893
Costs doubled0.4% on each side, as slippage in thinner stocks can be	+10.6%	−66.7%	28.4%	1.39	1,143
5 stocks at a timeA bigger share of the money in each trade	+15.0%	−65.8%	28.5%	1.51	593
20 stocks at a timeA smaller share in each trade	+20.7%	−46.6%	30.4%	1.69	2,146

First half · 1 Jan 2016 to 21 May 2021

Strategy+13.5%/yr

Nifty 500+12.8%/yr

Ahead of the index by 0.7 points a year.

Second half · 21 May 2021 to 1 Oct 2026

Strategy+16.5%/yr

Nifty 500+10.3%/yr

Ahead of the index by 6.2 points a year.

Recent trades in the backtest

The last 12 trades the rules closed, with 10 still open.

Stock	Opened	Closed	Days	Return	Why it closed
Ather EnergyATHERENERG	1 Jun 2026	29 Sep 2026	84	+49.9%	Closed below the 50-day average
Anand Rathi WealthANANDRATHI	18 Aug 2026	28 Sep 2026	28	−1.7%	Closed below the 50-day average
Vodafone IdeaIDEA	3 Sep 2026	22 Sep 2026	12	−5.4%	Closed below the 50-day average
Bharat Heavy ElectricalsBHEL	18 Aug 2026	16 Sep 2026	20	−4.7%	Closed below the 50-day average
R R KabelRRKABEL	31 Aug 2026	3 Sep 2026	3	−9.0%	7% below the opening price
The Federal BankFEDERALBNK	2 Jul 2026	31 Aug 2026	42	+2.9%	Closed below the 50-day average
Adani Energy SolutionsADANIENSOL	17 Aug 2026	18 Aug 2026	1	−2.4%	Closed below the 50-day average
Belrise IndustriesBELRISE	8 Jul 2026	18 Aug 2026	29	+3.3%	Closed below the 50-day average
Jayaswal Neco IndustriesJAYNECOIND	7 Aug 2026	17 Aug 2026	6	−4.5%	Closed below the 50-day average
Bharat ForgeBHARATFORG	10 Aug 2026	11 Aug 2026	1	−7.6%	Closed below the 50-day average
Kirloskar Oil EnginesKIRLOSENG	18 May 2026	10 Aug 2026	58	+23.2%	Closed below the 50-day average
Adani Energy SolutionsADANIENSOL	22 Jul 2026	7 Aug 2026	12	−7.8%	7% below the opening price

How the tests work

Universe. The 500 most-traded NSE stocks at each date, by six-month average traded value, re-ranked every month: 1,353 different stocks over the years, 131 of which no longer trade. Testing all of them, not only today's survivors, keeps the results honest.
Period. 1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026, after a year of history for the long averages, on NSE's own end-of-day files: prices, delivery and futures open interest.
Portfolio. 10 slots, each a tenth of the portfolio's value when a trade opens. A signal at a day's close opens at the next day's open; an exit rule met at a close closes the trade at the next open. When there are more signals than free slots, the strategy's own ranking decides.
Costs. 0.2% on each side of every trade (STT, stamp duty, exchange charges and slippage). Tax and DP charges are not included.
Market filter. Every strategy is also tested opening new trades only while the Nifty 500 closes above its 200-day average. At the last close it was below it.
Robustness. Each strategy is run again with costs doubled, with 5 and with 20 stocks at a time, and judged separately in each half of the test. A result that only holds in one setup is luck, not an edge.
Corporate actions. Splits, bonus issues and demergers are applied from NSE's corporate-actions list, and symbol changes are joined up, so none of them shows up as a gain or a loss.
What is left out. Dividends (as in the Nifty 500 price index it is measured against), taxes, and the chance that a large order moves a thinly traded price.

Swing Lab is a screen and a history lesson, not advice. RupeeVerse is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. A stock meeting a strategy's rules is not a recommendation to trade it, and past results do not predict future ones. Do your own research.