Breakout

Ichimoku Cloud Breakout

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, published by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in 1969, reads trend, momentum and support from one chart. The classic signal: the price closes above the cloud, with the conversion line above the base line and the close above its level of 26 days ago.

Yearly return, after costs−6.1%Nifty 500 +11.5% over the same years

Worst fall−59.0%Win rate29%Matches now0

How it works

The signal every rule true at the close

Close moves above the cloud today (above both Senkou spans)
Conversion line (9) is above the base line (26)
Close is above the close of 26 days ago (the lagging line is clear)

The exit whichever comes first

Closes below the base line (Kijun-sen, 26)

Typical holdingWeeks to months

An example from the backtestSiemens SIEMENSThe rules were met at the close before 22 Jul 2026. The trade opened that morning and closed on 9 Sep 2026, 35 trading days later, +6.3% after costs. Exit: closed below the base line (Kijun-sen).

Stocks meeting the rules 0

At the close of 1 Oct 2026, among NSE's 500 most-traded stocks. A screen, not a recommendation: in the backtest, a trade opened at the next day's open.

No stock among the 500 most-traded met every rule at the last close. Strategies like this wait for their setup; the list fills again when one appears.

Backtest

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: a 10-stock portfolio following these rules on NSE's 500 most-traded stocks at each date, after 0.2% costs on each side, against the Nifty 500 index.

Yearly return−6.1%Index +11.5%

Compound growth a year (CAGR).

Total return−49%Index +224%

Gain or loss over the whole test.

Worst fall−59.0%Index −38.3%

Largest drop from a high (max drawdown).

Win rate29.4%

Share of trades that closed with a gain.

Profit factor0.95

Rupees gained for every rupee lost.

Average trade−0.15%

Average result per trade, after costs.

Average gain · loss+11.0% · −4.8%

A typical winning and losing trade.

Days held13.1

Average trading days per trade.

Trades1,878

About 175 a year.

Sharpe ratio-0.22

Return for each unit of ups and downs.

Time invested93%

Average share of the money in trades.

Best · worst trade+128% · −32%

The extremes, after costs.

₹1 lakh following the rules

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: ₹0.51 L against ₹3.24 L in the Nifty 500.

Ichimoku Cloud BreakoutNifty 500

Falls from the high

Worst in this period −59.0%

Each calendar year

Return in the year, after costs.

Ichimoku Cloud BreakoutNifty 500

How the 1,878 trades ended

Each trade's return after costs, grouped.

GainLoss

How sturdy is it?

The same rules, tested again with one thing changed. A result worth trusting holds up across these; a big swing means the headline figure depends on luck or on the exact setup.

Beat the Nifty 500 in 0 of 5 versions and in 0 of 2 halves of the test.

Version	Yearly return	Worst fall	Win rate	Profit factor	Trades
As published10 stocks at a time, 0.2% costs on each side	−6.1%	−59.0%	29.4%	0.95	1,878
With the market filterNew trades only while the Nifty 500 is above its 200-day average	−3.5%	−59.6%	30.2%	0.97	1,491
Costs doubled0.4% on each side, as slippage in thinner stocks can be	−11.9%	−74.3%	27.7%	0.85	1,878
5 stocks at a timeA bigger share of the money in each trade	−5.0%	−59.6%	29.3%	0.98	952
20 stocks at a timeA smaller share in each trade	−1.6%	−50.8%	30.2%	1.01	3,491

First half · 1 Jan 2016 to 21 May 2021

Strategy−6.7%/yr

Nifty 500+12.8%/yr

Behind the index by 19.5 points a year.

Second half · 21 May 2021 to 1 Oct 2026

Strategy−5.5%/yr

Nifty 500+10.3%/yr

Behind the index by 15.8 points a year.

Recent trades in the backtest

The last 12 trades the rules closed, with 9 still open.

Stock	Opened	Closed	Days	Return	Why it closed
Apollo Hospitals EnterpriseAPOLLOHOSP	21 Sep 2026	30 Sep 2026	7	−3.8%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
PhysicswallahPWL	21 Sep 2026	30 Sep 2026	7	−7.7%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Granules IndiaGRANULES	28 Sep 2026	29 Sep 2026	1	−2.7%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
PCBL ChemicalPCBL	21 Sep 2026	29 Sep 2026	6	−2.2%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
NOCILNOCIL	9 Sep 2026	29 Sep 2026	13	−5.3%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
The Indian Hotels CompanyINDHOTEL	22 Sep 2026	28 Sep 2026	4	−4.0%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
SwiggySWIGGY	23 Sep 2026	25 Sep 2026	2	−5.8%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Vodafone IdeaIDEA	23 Sep 2026	24 Sep 2026	1	+0.7%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Emmvee Photovoltaic PowerEMMVEE	22 Sep 2026	24 Sep 2026	2	−4.3%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Jindal StainlessJSL	21 Sep 2026	23 Sep 2026	2	+0.1%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Granules IndiaGRANULES	18 Sep 2026	23 Sep 2026	3	−1.8%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)
Acutaas ChemicalsACUTAAS	17 Sep 2026	23 Sep 2026	4	−4.4%	Closed below the base line (Kijun-sen)

How the tests work

Universe. The 500 most-traded NSE stocks at each date, by six-month average traded value, re-ranked every month: 1,353 different stocks over the years, 131 of which no longer trade. Testing all of them, not only today's survivors, keeps the results honest.
Period. 1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026, after a year of history for the long averages, on NSE's own end-of-day files: prices, delivery and futures open interest.
Portfolio. 10 slots, each a tenth of the portfolio's value when a trade opens. A signal at a day's close opens at the next day's open; an exit rule met at a close closes the trade at the next open. When there are more signals than free slots, the strategy's own ranking decides.
Costs. 0.2% on each side of every trade (STT, stamp duty, exchange charges and slippage). Tax and DP charges are not included.
Market filter. Every strategy is also tested opening new trades only while the Nifty 500 closes above its 200-day average. At the last close it was below it.
Robustness. Each strategy is run again with costs doubled, with 5 and with 20 stocks at a time, and judged separately in each half of the test. A result that only holds in one setup is luck, not an edge.
Corporate actions. Splits, bonus issues and demergers are applied from NSE's corporate-actions list, and symbol changes are joined up, so none of them shows up as a gain or a loss.
What is left out. Dividends (as in the Nifty 500 price index it is measured against), taxes, and the chance that a large order moves a thinly traded price.

Swing Lab is a screen and a history lesson, not advice. RupeeVerse is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. A stock meeting a strategy's rules is not a recommendation to trade it, and past results do not predict future ones. Do your own research.