Trend following

Golden Cross

From Classic 50/200-day crossoverRead about it

The best-known signal in technical analysis: the 50-day average crossing above the 200-day marks a shift to a long-term uptrend. It is slow by design, and a trade lasts until the opposite 'death cross'.

Yearly return, after costs+12.1%Nifty 500 +11.5% over the same years

Worst fall−31.7%Win rate34%Matches now1

How it works

The signal every rule true at the close

50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day today

The exit whichever comes first

50-day average crosses back below the 200-day (a death cross)
Or closes 15% below the price the trade opened at

Typical holdingMonths

An example from the backtestVedanta VEDLThe rules were met at the close before 30 Sep 2025. The trade opened that morning and closed on 30 Sep 2026, 246 trading days later, +51.3% after costs. Exit: death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day.

Stocks meeting the rules 1

At the close of 1 Oct 2026, among NSE's 500 most-traded stocks. A screen, not a recommendation: in the backtest, a trade opened at the next day's open.

1Balkrishna IndustriesBALKRISIND · Automobile and Auto ComponentsClose₹2,083.5Day−1.58%Above 200-DMA−8.6%6-month return0.0%

Backtest

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: a 10-stock portfolio following these rules on NSE's 500 most-traded stocks at each date, after 0.2% costs on each side, against the Nifty 500 index.

Yearly return+12.1%Index +11.5%

Compound growth a year (CAGR).

Total return+240%Index +224%

Gain or loss over the whole test.

Worst fall−31.7%Index −38.3%

Largest drop from a high (max drawdown).

Win rate33.7%

Share of trades that closed with a gain.

Profit factor2.29

Rupees gained for every rupee lost.

Average trade+10.24%

Average result per trade, after costs.

Average gain · loss+54.0% · −12.0%

A typical winning and losing trade.

Days held137.2

Average trading days per trade.

Trades172

About 16 a year.

Sharpe ratio0.68

Return for each unit of ups and downs.

Time invested97%

Average share of the money in trades.

Best · worst trade+282% · −29%

The extremes, after costs.

₹1 lakh following the rules

1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026: ₹3.40 L against ₹3.24 L in the Nifty 500.

Golden CrossNifty 500

Falls from the high

Worst in this period −31.7%

Each calendar year

Return in the year, after costs.

Golden CrossNifty 500

How the 172 trades ended

Each trade's return after costs, grouped.

GainLoss

How sturdy is it?

The same rules, tested again with one thing changed. A result worth trusting holds up across these; a big swing means the headline figure depends on luck or on the exact setup.

Beat the Nifty 500 in 2 of 5 versions and in 1 of 2 halves of the test.

Version	Yearly return	Worst fall	Win rate	Profit factor	Trades
As published10 stocks at a time, 0.2% costs on each side	+12.1%	−31.7%	33.7%	2.29	172
With the market filterNew trades only while the Nifty 500 is above its 200-day average	+7.6%	−32.6%	30.6%	1.9	144
Costs doubled0.4% on each side, as slippage in thinner stocks can be	+11.4%	−31.7%	33.7%	2.2	172
5 stocks at a timeA bigger share of the money in each trade	+10.3%	−37.1%	33.3%	2.02	96
20 stocks at a timeA smaller share in each trade	+16.9%	−31.9%	35.6%	3.04	320

First half · 1 Jan 2016 to 21 May 2021

Strategy+10.8%/yr

Nifty 500+12.8%/yr

Behind the index by 2.0 points a year.

Second half · 21 May 2021 to 1 Oct 2026

Strategy+13.4%/yr

Nifty 500+10.3%/yr

Ahead of the index by 3.1 points a year.

Recent trades in the backtest

The last 12 trades the rules closed, with 10 still open.

Stock	Opened	Closed	Days	Return	Why it closed
VedantaVEDL	30 Sep 2025	30 Sep 2026	246	+51.3%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Time TechnoplastTIMETECHNO	11 Aug 2026	17 Sep 2026	26	−17.0%	15% below the opening price
Torrent PowerTORNTPOWER	18 Feb 2026	11 Aug 2026	116	−9.3%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Life Insurance Corporation Of IndiaLICI	4 Aug 2026	7 Aug 2026	3	−0.0%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Power Grid Corporation of IndiaPOWERGRID	23 Mar 2026	7 Aug 2026	92	−10.2%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Avanti FeedsAVANTIFEED	23 Dec 2025	4 Aug 2026	149	+6.4%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Oil IndiaOIL	30 Jan 2026	11 Jun 2026	87	−16.4%	15% below the opening price
Manappuram FinanceMANAPPURAM	18 Feb 2025	9 Apr 2026	278	+40.1%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
KrossKROSS	4 Feb 2026	23 Mar 2026	32	−16.4%	15% below the opening price
Bajaj FinanceBAJFINANCE	29 Jan 2025	13 Mar 2026	276	+12.0%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Natco PharmaNATCOPHARM	7 Jan 2026	17 Feb 2026	27	−5.0%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day
Coromandel InternationalCOROMANDEL	21 Jan 2026	3 Feb 2026	8	−1.5%	Death cross: the 50-day fell below the 200-day

How the tests work

Universe. The 500 most-traded NSE stocks at each date, by six-month average traded value, re-ranked every month: 1,353 different stocks over the years, 131 of which no longer trade. Testing all of them, not only today's survivors, keeps the results honest.
Period. 1 Jan 2016 to 1 Oct 2026, after a year of history for the long averages, on NSE's own end-of-day files: prices, delivery and futures open interest.
Portfolio. 10 slots, each a tenth of the portfolio's value when a trade opens. A signal at a day's close opens at the next day's open; an exit rule met at a close closes the trade at the next open. When there are more signals than free slots, the strategy's own ranking decides.
Costs. 0.2% on each side of every trade (STT, stamp duty, exchange charges and slippage). Tax and DP charges are not included.
Market filter. Every strategy is also tested opening new trades only while the Nifty 500 closes above its 200-day average. At the last close it was below it.
Robustness. Each strategy is run again with costs doubled, with 5 and with 20 stocks at a time, and judged separately in each half of the test. A result that only holds in one setup is luck, not an edge.
Corporate actions. Splits, bonus issues and demergers are applied from NSE's corporate-actions list, and symbol changes are joined up, so none of them shows up as a gain or a loss.
What is left out. Dividends (as in the Nifty 500 price index it is measured against), taxes, and the chance that a large order moves a thinly traded price.

Swing Lab is a screen and a history lesson, not advice. RupeeVerse is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. A stock meeting a strategy's rules is not a recommendation to trade it, and past results do not predict future ones. Do your own research.